HB69’s $807 Million Education Mirage: A Fiscal Time Bomb for Alaska’s Kids

No money? No problem. Let's just charge it.

On March 6, 2025, the Alaska House Rules Committee rammed House Bill 69 (HB69) through to the House floor with a 5-2 vote, dangling a $251 million education boost for 2025-26 that balloons to $807 million by 2031. They did this without a single dollar identified to pay for it. I testified against this bill on January 29, 2025, before the House Education Committee, drawing on my Government fiscal law experience, years as a military resource advisor and DTS auditor, and an MBA in financial management. I’ve dissected budgets from Anchorage to the Pentagon. This isn’t just reckless; it’s a fiscal time bomb set to explode when today’s 12 year olds hit working age in 2031, chaining them to a broken system and a hollowed-out economy.

The Myth of More Money Fixing Schools

The incessant push to hike the Base Student Allocation (BSA) from $5,960 to $6,960—adding $1,000 per student this year—is a sham that needs to die. Alaska already spends $2.88 billion annually on K-12 education, translating to $22,000 per pupil in 2024-25, seventh highest in the U.S. per the Census Bureau. That’s $2,200 more than Massachusetts ($19,800, 4th in reading), yet only 26% of our fourth graders are proficient in reading and 23% in math (NAEP 2022). That scores dead last at 51st nationally. Utah spends $10,305 per pupil (41st), yet achieves 35% reading and 38% math proficiency. Money isn’t the answer; management is.

HB69’s $251 million now, $465 million in BSA hikes plus $342 million in tied costs like transportation by 2031, won’t lift scores. It’ll just deepen the hole. Let me kindly remind everyone that Ballot Measure 1 is up for a vote on April 1st. The district is asking for $60 million in upgrades, compounding the deficit issue with more hidden costs and fees.

A Budget Without a Backbone

The Rules Committee’s vote came after closed-door negotiations, sidelining House Republicans and taxpayers. Rep. Rebecca Himschoot calls it a “good-faith compromise” from a $500 million-plus plan, but where’s the faith when there’s no funding? The Finance Committee waved it through earlier without a revenue source with minority amendments asking “how?” were shot down 5-2. Alaska faces a $536 million two-year deficit (Legislative Finance, FY25-26). Savings? The $3.5 billion Constitutional Budget Reserve is off-limits for operating costs, per Senate Finance Co-Chair Lyman Hoffman. Taxes? No proposals. Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) cuts? A $1,440 PFD is already baked into the deficit—slashing it further risks a $1 billion backlash (70% of Alaskans oppose it, per 2024 polls). HB69’s $807 million by 2031 is a promise written in smoke.

Anchorage’s Cautionary Tale

Look at Anchorage School District (ASD): a proposed $900 million budget for FY26, up from $615 million in FY25 and serves 41,000 students, down 1,000 since 2020 (DEED data). That’s $21,951 per pupil, yet ASD faces a $111 million deficit, packing 40 kids into high school classrooms and eyeing sports cuts while boosting DEI spending.

Statewide, FY24’s $1.28 billion state spend splits 63% ($806 million) on instruction and 37% ($474 million) on administration, maintenance, and “other”. This is a $3,750-per-student black hole. Juneau’s $62 million budget for 4,100 students ($15,122 each) lost $27 million since 2004 to a 1,200-student drop, yet consolidation stalls. HB69’s $80 million share for ASD (32% of $251 million) won’t fix this, it’ll prop up waste.

The 2031 Fallout for Today’s 12-Year-Olds

Here’s the gut punch: today’s 12-year-olds, sixth graders in 2025, will be 18 and entering the workforce by 2031. This is when HB69’s $807 million tab hits full force. By then, the BSA will be $8,768, adding $6,808 per student over today’s $5,960. This will push per-pupil spending past $28,000 if trends hold. With enrollment dropping (126,000 projected by 2030, per DEED), fixed costs will spike that higher to rise with "inflation" and rising union contracts to, $29,000-$30,000 per student. That’s $3.78 billion annually for K-12, a 31% jump from $2.88 billion, with no revenue plan.

These kids will inherit:

• A Tax Burden: No new taxes are proposed now, but $807 million doesn’t materialize. By 2031, with a $536 million deficit already, state income or sales taxes, killed in 1980 and dodged since, are already popular talking points to a Democrat led Congress. A 2% sales tax yields $200 million yearly (Legislative estimate); doubling it covers HB69, hitting a tax base that already pays 59% towards education

• Gutted PFD: If PFD cuts fund this (50% of state revenue, $1.8 billion in FY24), today’s $1,440 could shrink to $500-$700, slashing a lifeline for entry-level workers. In 2031, an 18-year-old cashier earning $30,000 might lose $1,000 annually, 3% of income. Any taxes imposed will dwarf the PFD carrot.

• Job Scarcity: Education’s 12% of Alaska’s budget ($2.88 billion of $23 billion GDP) crowds out infrastructure (roads, ports down 15% since 2015). Without jobs, oil’s 25% of GDP is fading, reliance on Federal funds, these kids face unemployment or outmigration, with 5,000 Alaskans leaving yearly.

Accountability, Not Cash

I’ve audited military travel budgets down to the penny and advised resource allocation under pressure. Unfunded mandates like HB69 collapse every time. Alaska’s $22,000 per pupil should deliver; instead, 74% of fourth graders can’t read proficiently. X posts on March 6 nailed it: “no funding source,” “secretive nonsense,” “serious oversight.” Rep. Vance’s call for online budget transparency is a start, ASD’s $900 million should be dissected, not padded. In FY24, $474 million went to “other” costs. Audit that, not raise it. HB69’s a $251 million IOU now, $807 million by 2031, crippling kids with debt or cuts when they’re 18.

A Call to Kill the Myth

I testified against HB69 because I’ve seen fiscal malpractice bankrupt systems. My opponent is sharing a dangerous message of giving the district a blank check without taking responsibility. The spending in our government is already out of control. Alaska’s kids deserve better. Today’s 12-year-olds shouldn’t graduate into a state that spent $28,000 per pupil to leave them illiterate, jobless, and taxed. Kill the BSA hike myth. Demand audits, every dollar of $2.88 billion online. Anything less is a betrayal of 2031’s workforce.